The figures are conclusive: Scotland must build more homes

There are usually no simple solutions to complex problems, but it is surely a fundamental principle that a decline in the number of new homes being built at a time when there is a national housing emergency is a sign that we are not going in the right direction. The latest official quarterly housing statistics from the Scottish government show that, far from beginning to resolve the current problems, we are moving further away from fixing this issue.

The number of all-sector newbuild starts in Scotland between 2023 and 2024 fell by 1,538 (-9.3 per cent) from 16,588 to 15,050 which is the lowest 12-month figure since 2013. These numbers are 3,958 and 6,399 lower respectively than the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021.

The drop in private-sector newbuilds was 1,605 (-12.1 per cent) lower falling from 13,222 to 11,617. This is also the lowest annual figure since 2013 when 10,987 homes were started.

The data for the social housing sector is almost completely static with just sixty-seven more homes started in 2024 rising from 3,366 in 2023 to 3,433 in 2024. Apart from last year you have to go back to 2012 to get a lower annual figure than this.

Of further concern is that there is an enormous divergence in newbuilds by area with some parts of Scotland barely building and others experiencing a boom. Edinburgh has the highest number of all-sector newbuilds at 2,126 which alone is 14.1 per cent of the total. Glasgow city, however, only had 459 newbuild starts which is just 3 per cent of the total and the lowest annual figure ever since this data began being collated in 1996.

Fife had the second highest figure at 1,634 with West Lothian the third greatest at 1,096 and if you add in Midlothian and East Lothian the figure rises to just under 42 per cent of all newbuild starts are in and around the capital.

This level of newbuilds in both the private and social housing sectors means we face a continued period of rising house prices, higher rents, and lengthening waiting lists.

Low volumes have contributed to the substantial house price rises we have seen in Scotland and, given this continued dip in private sector building, this is only likely to continue in the future.

The private rented sector has never experienced the current level of demand, with unprecedented numbers of people applying for properties without adequate supply to meet the needs of tenants, resulting in rising rents.

With the volume of social housing already unable to meet the existing demand for homes, with hundreds of thousands on waiting lists, and tens of thousands homeless and in temporary accommodation, there is the very real possibility that this situation will only get worse in the coming years.

Without a major investment in social housing, greater support for the private rental sector, and major encouragement and incentives for the housebuilding sector it is clear that tens of thousands of people in Scotland are going to be unable to find a home to live in over the next few years. Scotland simply needs to build more homes, and it needs to do it immediately.