It’s time to face facts about the Heat in Buildings Bill - David Alexander

20th Aug 2024

There must come a point when reality overcomes ambition. If you are faced with facts that tell you a target you’ve set will not be achieved, or an aim you have is not going to occur any time soon then you must admit the situation and change your position.

This occurred recently with a critique of the Scottish Governments’ Heat in Buildings Bill. A recent report by the Just Transition Commission highlighted an astonishing reality gap between the existing targets and the progress toward meeting them.

The report, entitled ‘Investment for a just transition: a starting point’ stated that “we need to get real about costs. The Scottish Government has estimated £33bn is needed to decarbonise Scotland’s homes and buildings. We have approximately 2.6m homes and 230k non-domestic buildings, so if you do the basic maths, that’s about £11.5k/building.

“That might just about cover the installation cost of a heat pump in an easy-to-treat property. To meet the tougher end of the net zero objectives, we’ll need likely four times that investment, so circa £45k/building to do it once and do it properly. Which is more like £130bn, not £33bn. So, we need to get really serious about the costs of achieving Net Zero, who’s going to pay, and how.”

This fairly damning report emphasises just how far there is to go and how unlikely we are to achieve these aims within the existing deadlines.

But the Scottish Government must regard this as a wake-up call rather than an unwanted attack on their policy. There is a lesson in this report – and in the views of many within the housing sector who have also pointed out the inevitable failure of the current targets – and it is that action must be taken to address the current shortcomings.

Training in installation needs to be substantially increased, greater transparency on prices must be made, and a more realistic timetable should be established. There must be negotiation with those in the sector from housebuilders to the private rented sector, who have already been set unachievable targets to upgrade heating systems.

Many of the proposed policies will only exacerbate the housing emergency whereas we need to establish a blueprint for how best to tackle the climate crisis in the next 20 years rather than set targets which will continue to fail and will simply limit investment in the property market.

Let’s rip it up and start again and look at plans which will actually work, which will grow the numbers employed in the sector, which will bring private investment into Scotland, and which will produce the required results not by 2028 for the PRS or 2033 for homeowners but by a more realistic date.

Only by moderating the existing policies to ensure they will be compliant but achievable will people start to engage more seriously with the aims of the Heat in Scotland Bill rather than its rather proscriptive methods.

A bit of honesty on the costs would not go amiss. A commitment of £1.8bn over the next two years to meet a potential bill of £130bn by 2045 highlights just how out of kilter the words are with the deeds. Anything less will simply not cut the mustard. We are in a housing emergency and the Heat in Scotland Bill is only going to make this worse rather than better in the next five years.

David Alexander is CEO of DJ Alexander Scotland Ltd

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